To get into the perspective of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military incursion and obsession with Ukraine \u2013 one needs to understand his real intent. Looking back the Russian history and the president’s thinking, the real reasons for the invasion of the former Soviet republic of Ukraine are an open secret.<\/p>\n
Last summer, he picked up his pen as an essayist and historian and literally referred to Russians and Ukrainians as “one people.\u201d It’s, however, not a one-time admission; he likes to refer to the two countries, including the Belarusian republic, this way.<\/p>\n
“When I was asked about Russian-Ukrainian relations, I said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people \u2013 a single whole,” writes the 69-year-old in an essay\u00a0published on the Kremlin portal<\/a>. “These words were not driven by some short-term considerations or prompted by the current political context. It is what I have said on numerous occasions and what I firmly believe.”<\/p>\n This might partially explain the current military shelling of Ukraine. This sovereign nation became independent on 24th August 1991 when the then Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) was dissolved. The Ukrainian parliament declared the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic free from the laws of the USSR.<\/p>\n Still, Putin has always made it clear that Ukraine has no historical claim to independence. “Modern Ukraine was entirely and fully created by Russia, more specifically the Bolshevik, communist Russia,” In fact, Putin claimed the same in a speech earlier this year revealing the true reason for military action in Ukraine, despite that historians have proved his claims false, showcasing that Kyiv had been\u00a0in existence for hundreds of years<\/a>, even prior to Moscow.<\/p>\n Another obvious reason for the Russian military’s onslaught in Ukraine is the fight for global hegemony and the United States’ unipolarity. In 2017, while criticising the US for “overstepping its national borders” following its military actions in Afghanistan and Iraq, Putin, referring to the US, said that “a unipolar world… is a world in which there is one master, one sovereign,” calling this model unacceptable and impossible, as\u00a0reported by the Washington Post<\/a>. But these are stories for another day.<\/p>\n It may seem presumptuous to predict the outcome of the war at inception. And counterintuitively predict that it will turn out unfavorably for the far more powerful of the opponents. But the signs are ominous for Putin and Russia, regardless of who defeats who in the current war.<\/p>\n While Putin’s military victory appears inevitable given the current balance of power, it will come at a significant human and material cost. After only three days of fighting, the Ukrainian military leadership – whose figures are, of course, to be viewed with caution –\u00a0estimates the losses of the Russian armed forces<\/a>\u00a0at 4300 soldiers (killed or captured), 27 planes, 26 helicopters, 2 ships, 146 tanks, and 706 armored vehicles.<\/p>\n According to Ukraine\u2019s figures, two months after the war started, the count of human casualties on the Russian side are approximately 19,000 soldier deaths. While Russia is only confirming 1,083,\u00a0emerging footage<\/a>\u00a0obtained by The Guardian is starting to show that the casualties are well under-reported by Russia.<\/p>\n For its part, Moscow first denied any casualties and has probably never released a credible number. Be that as it may, thanks to the exceptional combat prowess of the Ukrainians, armed with weapons from at least 28 countries, the encounter is not the ‘blitzkrieg’ Putin hoped for: it is more intense. It will undoubtedly last longer than Russian strategists had hoped.<\/p>\n As Lawrence Freedman, the Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, says, Putin has committed\u00a0two classic mistakes<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 underestimating the enemy and overestimating his armed forces.<\/p>\n In these circumstances, there are two possibilities. The first is that Putin will not go to extremes. Local resistance, coupled with international pressure and national risk, could force him to negotiate before the Ukrainian army is defeated.<\/p>\n Such a War could eventually bring a complete failure and even humiliation to his face and the Russian armed forces. At the start of the invasion, he was willing to pay a calculated price for a win, but he may now risk paying a far higher price than planned for little or no win. Putin knows that defeat in Ukraine will undoubtedly mean his downfall in Moscow.<\/p>\n The second possibility, which unfortunately seems more likely, is that he will stubbornly stick to the current approach, no matter the price. The fighting could go on for months or years. To hasten the outcome, reduce the impression of a Russian defeat, and break the morale of the Ukrainian people. And just last month, the Russian state reasserted its right to\u00a0use nuclear weapons in Ukraine<\/a>.<\/p>\n But will he do it? Hopefully not!<\/p>\n The war in Ukraine has ended metaphysical questions about NATO’s relevance or usefulness in today’s world. This is a clear indication that the end of the USSR does not mean that the allied countries no longer face a common threat – all the more so since the current threat is borne by the striving for a restoration of the USSR or even the Tsarist Empire.<\/p>\n This threat justifies a common defense (and, in retrospect, justifies the foreboding of those in favor of maintaining NATO in case of Russian irredentism). There is no better incentive to meet or even exceed\u00a0NATO’s 2% of GDP target<\/a>\u00a0for military spending, modernise equipment, and increase operational readiness, all with a high-intensity conflict. For example, in February, in a special session of the Bundestag, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz\u00a0announced a budget of 100 billion euros<\/a>\u00a0for the modernization of the Bundeswehr and an increase in the defense budget to over 2% of GDP.<\/p>\n This is historical. Putin pulled off the feat of waking up Germany, and more countries will follow suit, much to the chagrin of Russia.<\/p>\n The reaction of the international community may seem insufficient for the time being because it has no direct influence on the war \u2013 at least not just yet. But the sanctions against Moscow, the most far-reaching in scope ever imposed on a state, will have a lasting effect on the various spheres of society (financial, energy, transportation, technology) and individuals, including powerful oligarchs.<\/p>\n They are already in force: on 26th February, the French authorities in the English Channel\u00a0stopped a Russian cargo ship<\/a>\u00a0loaded with cars on its way to Saint Petersburg and diverted it to Boulogne-sur-Mer.<\/p>\n The\u00a0exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system\u00a0<\/a>\u2013 one of the most radical economic sanctions and which has been agreed upon \u2013 should take effect soon. The sanctions come from Europe and North America and Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, especially regarding key technologies, such as semiconductors, on which Moscow depends.<\/p>\n China could offset some of these effects, but not all, and it will take time. It will not be able to replace the confiscated funds, real estate, and yachts.<\/p>\n Global civil society is not to be underestimated, and it too can cause serious damage, and not just in the form of images. The morning after the attack on Ukraine, the hacking group\u00a0Anonymous declared “cyber war”<\/a>\u00a0on Russia. They launched attacks that took several government sites offline, including those of the Russian Defense Ministry and the media outlet RT (formerly Russia Today).<\/p>\n In several countries, including the UK and France, parliamentarians and public figures have called for RT to be suspended. YouTube has already started blocking some [Russian] channels, including RT’s global channels, from being able to generate revenue from YouTube.<\/p>\n The sports industry is also reacting: UEFA has condemned “the military invasion” and changed the venue of the Champions League final, which was supposed to be held in Saint Petersburg. Several well-known athletes will not compete in Russia, and national teams have announced that they will no longer compete against Russian teams.<\/p>\n Under these conditions, Russia’s economic weakening is inevitable, as is political isolation on the international stage. Indeed, Russia is becoming a pariah state that no longer wants to be around, whether in trade relations, diplomatic formats, airspace, information space, sports competitions, or in any other event of international life.<\/p>\n Putin may reassure himself that he will continue to have relations with China, Belarus, Iran, Pakistan, and some other countries that are indifferent to international law and humanitarian principles, but that will not convince businessmen, athletes, and the general public who will pay the real price.<\/p>\n What this war is destroying is the future of Russia, and its people know it. The war in Ukraine will create tremendous discontent in Russia and pose a tremendous problem to Putin, who, like all dictators, fears his people first.<\/p>\n Firstly because the war will cause thousands of deaths on the Russian side, that means tens of thousands of grieving families and friends.<\/p>\n The Russian population knows so little about this war. There have been demonstrations since the beginning of the offensive. “No to War” graffiti has appeared everywhere. The few independent media outlets remaining in the country have publicly expressed their opposition to the war and their support for the Ukrainian people.<\/p>\n A coalition of more than 600 Russian researchers and scholars has\u00a0issued an open letter<\/a>\u00a0criticizing Russia’s responsibility for the war, saying Russia “has condemned itself to isolation on the international stage and to being a pariah state.”<\/p>\n Even the political consensus is crumbling: on the third day of the war, a Duma deputy who voted to recognize the separatist areas spoke out against the invasion. In March, Anatoly Chubais, a senior Kremlin official, resigned and fled Russia.<\/p>\n In general, the war is becoming a catalyst for the Russian implosion.<\/p>\n Will this war eventually catch up with Putin and be his demise? Dissatisfaction will grow when more and more Russian soldiers die, even if Ukraine should have officially surrendered. This will happen when food prices continue to rise and the next pension increase is smaller than expected.<\/p>\n That can happen in a few weeks, months, or even a few years. But sooner or later, despite all the propaganda, the majority of Russians will realise just how badly their head of state is harming their country and Europe.<\/p>\n Featured photo by Ahmed akacha<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0Pexels<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Writes Althea, Content Writer, Headline Diplomat eMagazine To get into the perspective of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military incursion and obsession with Ukraine \u2013 one needs to understand his real intent. Looking back the Russian history and the president’s thinking, the real reasons for the invasion of the former Soviet republic of Ukraine are an …<\/p>\nThe price of military victory<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The strengthening of NATO<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The isolation of Russia<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The end of Putin?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n