Writes Hera, Content Writer, Headline Diplomat eMagazine
It’s been 19 days since Russia began its open military invasion of Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that began in 2014.
Despite days of talks between the two countries and heavy sanctions from the West, Russia continues its war of aggression against Ukraine and an end to the hostilities is not yet in sight. So far, 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers with 400 civilians are reported killed with 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers also lost in the war in Ukraine, according to the Al Jazeera.
How has this war of aggression come about – in the middle of Europe? How did it come to this? Here’s an overview of the war, the current developments, and who represents which positions.
Current situation as of March 14, 2022
According to the Ukrainian general staff, the Russian army is preparing several offensives in the country. The units attempted to establish themselves at previously occupied points, to provide supplies, and to regroup.
“The enemy is forming and moving strategic reserves to our borders,” the Ukrainian general staff said in a daily bulletin early on Monday, as reported by Al Jazeera.
As soon as this has happened, new attacks are expected, for example on the cities of Kharkiv in the east, Sumy in the northeast, or the Kyiv suburb of Brovari. In many cities and regions of Ukraine, including Kyiv, Lviv, and Odessa, there was an air alert early on Monday.
In view of the Russian attacks escalating towards western Ukraine and the shelling of the military base near the Polish border, the Ukrainian President has again called for a no-fly zone over Ukraine: “If you don’t seal off our skies, it’s only a matter of time before Russian… missiles will fall on your territory, on NATO territory and on the homes of NATO citizens”.
New negotiations of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations via video conference are scheduled for Monday. Representatives of Moscow and Kyiv expressed cautious optimism. According to the Russian foreign politician Leonid Slutsky, it might be possible to agree on a position in the next few days. Also, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy is pushing for a face-to-face meeting with President Putin, according to the DW.
The evacuation from embattled cities was only partially possible yesterday. In Mariupol, the attempt to bring people to safety failed again. In other places, however, escape corridors have been successful. A total of 7,000 people were brought to safety from Sievjerodonetsk and Lyssychansk in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk, as well as from Irpin and Bucha northwest of the capital Kyiv.
According to the Ukrainian general staff, in their attempt to further encircle the capital Kyiv, the Russian troops are now also trying to blockade the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv from the east.
For the past few days, Russia has also been targeting western Ukraine. From Russia’s point of view, Sunday’s attack on a military base in Yavoriv, not far from the Polish border, in which 38 soldiers were killed, was certainly intended to destroy Ukraine’s military infrastructure and supplies. On the other hand, it will also have been a message to NATO, to the West, not to get involved any further.
Historical background
After Russia, Ukraine is the largest country in Europe in terms of area, with a population of 44 million. Since the declaration of independence in December 1991, the presidential republic has faced the greatest challenges in its recent history.
Developments in Ukraine have already aroused international concern in recent years and led to a low point in Russian-Western relations. In the spring of 2021, the conflict over Ukraine that began in 2013/2014 flared up again. Russia then begun a massive troop deployment on the border with Ukraine.
What has happened?
By February 2022, Russia had successively massed around 190,000 soldiers and military equipment on the borders around Ukraine, reported The Guardian. 30,000 Russian soldiers were stationed in Belarus. In the meantime, these units have almost completely invaded Ukraine. With the recognition of the separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states and the military offensive in Ukraine, President Putin broke off diplomatic efforts and launched a war of aggression against the country.
For weeks, Ukraine and the West had feared that Russia could plan an invasion and invade the neighboring country. Russia had always denied such a plan and has demanded security guarantees from NATO and the USA, a reduction in the military presence on NATO’s eastern flank, and, above all, a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion.
For years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the Western alliance of expanding ever further towards Russia. He then demanded written guarantees from NATO that no further Eastern European states such as Ukraine or Georgia would be admitted to NATO in the future.
And Putin went a step further in his demands: As far as the geographic scope of NATO is concerned, it should be brought back to the 1997 level. This would rule out the stationing of NATO units on the territory of the former Warsaw Pact, the former Yugoslavia, the Baltic states, the Visegrad states as well as in Romania and Bulgaria.
The USA and NATO rejected these demands as largely unacceptable. However, Russia’s concern is not just about expanding its influence on security policy in Eastern Europe.
According to the Washington Post, Putin wants to re-establish Russia to the “great power status” on par with the US and China. Historically, Putin is concerned with restoring and securing the Russian empire, historians state.
Some observers also suspect that Russia is less interested in possible NATO expansion plans per se and that Putin is fighting against a strengthening of democracy in Ukraine. Russia’s aggression would be directed against the free democratic system of values in the West as a whole, which, from Russia’s point of view, posed a threat to the authoritarian regime in Moscow in the form of Ukraine.
If Ukraine is culturally Russian as Putin says, then not NATO, but a pro-democracy Ukraine is a threat to the Russian autocracy, says Derek Mitchell, president of the National Democratic Institute.
“It’s very clear that he’s … threatened by the unity and the democratic orientation of Ukraine,” he says.
For weeks, diplomatic negotiations ran at full speed to prevent further escalation and a renewed outbreak of war. The western community of states had warned Russia several times against violating the borders and threatened severe sanctions.
Germany and France had placed hopes in the so-called “Normandy Format” to resolve the deadlocked conflict, which envisages negotiations between the four states of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany.
The heads of state of Russia and Ukraine had also initially shown willingness to implement the Minsk Agreement as part of the Normandy format, but efforts are at a “dead-end” after several talks, Russian President Putin said after fighting resumed in Donbas.
Putin recognised the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states and signed treaties of friendship with them.
On February 24, 2022, Putin launched a war against Ukraine to protect what he saw as a threat to Russian citizens. In his speech shortly before the invasion, Putin justified the attack as defending those people who were being mistreated and murdered by the Kyiv regime.
He says the Russian army will endeavor to “denazify” the Ukrainian territories and fight the “genocide” of Russians.
The world community is appalled by the war of aggression against a sovereign country, condemns Putin’s actions and the blatant violation of international law in the strongest possible terms, and has decided on tough economic sanctions against Russia.
War in Ukraine could, under certain circumstances, also result in an extension to NATO countries. However, direct military support for Ukraine by NATO is still considered impossible. Since Ukraine is not a member of the NATO alliance, it cannot request assistance under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. In their North Atlantic Treaty, the members of NATO agreed on 14 points in 1949, including Article 5, which states that:
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in the exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”
Over the years, more and more countries have joined NATO. But – very important: Ukraine is not yet a NATO member. The previous eastward expansion of NATO – most recently in 2004 by the countries of Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Estonia, Slovakia, Latvia, and Lithuania – has repeatedly been criticized by the Russian leadership as a provocation. Russia has repeatedly emphasized that NATO had once ruled out expansion to the east.
In addition, however, the danger must not be ignored. NATO could be drawn into the war without direct military intervention. By supporting Ukraine with its measures, NATO and the West could sooner or later become a war party.
And this would be a dangerous development, considering Putin’s recent speech, in which he clearly warned everyone:
“Whoever tries to hinder us, let alone create a threat to our country and our people, needs to know that Russia’s response will be instantaneous and will have consequences that you have never seen in your history.”
Conclusions
The attack ordered by the Russian government is bringing war back to Europe and threatening to spark a nuclear war that will be a threat to mankind. It is, however, important to note that states that recognize international law are forbidden from attacking another state with military means.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops is a serious violation of international law. Nothing justifies the invasion and use of military force on a sovereign nation.
We declare solidarity with the people of Ukraine and all those who have suffered as a result of Russia’s intolerable decision. We also call on President Putin to silence the guns and turn back the tanks.
We appeal to all responsible politicians in Russia and the West to do everything possible to avoid further escalation. We stand with the Russians who oppose this decision. It must be the task of everyone to resolutely counteract a relapse into the dark European past of hatred and hostility.
Featured photo by Efrem Efre, Pexels
